Insane Ukraine

We have to unfuck our culture. Rephrase – We must get past corporations and nation states. Both are archaic and we and our planet are dying.

It is in our nature to go about our business and live our lives as best we can. And we all know that the decked is stacked against us. If we look clearly into history, we see the culprits. Nation states and corporations.

Many of our nation states today are but the result of the British Empire designating them because they had guns and ships and the interest. Much of Africa and South America in particular are composed of countries that The British Empire drew the lines for. What a shitty way to determine national boundaries.

The corporations stood right there with them, the East India Trading Company and The Hudson Bay Company are history book examples. A trio of government officials, missionaries and corporate toadies combined to spread a thick layer of bullshit over whomever they intended to colonize. Praise Jesus.

Today many of us understand that many of these nation-state boundaries are but the result of empire, and that regionalism and tribal ancestry make for much better governments.

Oh, I almost forgot I was writing about this fucked up piece of shit war in Ukraine. I watch, I rage, I weep and repeat the cycle. Insanity indeed.

All the governmental players have a role and responsibility in this ugly disaster. The US has poked the bear as they say, with numerous bases and an aggressive stance toward Russia. You throw in crazy-ass Putin, who cares for nothing but retaining and growing his power, and Zelenskyy, whose hero status is suspect and is friends with Ukrainian oligarch Igor Kolomoisky. Some argue he’s running a government no less corrupt than his predecessors.

Damn. There it is again. Not good vs evil, as our corporate media would have you believe, but bunch of bad actors that includes the Unites States.

Putin’s actions starting this conflict were reprehensible, as are his continuing decisions to keep bombing innocent people. So it’s an easy sell to make him the bad guy. Zelenskyy hasn’t shown that disgusting level of murder, but he’s no saint. The real kicker here is the United States, who has shown little interest in negotiations and great interest in blowing up stuff making millions and billions for the Lockheed Martins (42 billion last year) and Boeings (23 billion last year) and other members of their club. Our government serves up military grade weapons and these war corporations make the financial killing.

So the Permanent War Paradigm, which we were first warned about by President Dwight Eisenhower in 1960, is on full display and shows no sign of being diminished. Our corporate-controlled culture continues to make sure corporations always win. Not good for us citizens. Not good for this dear Earth.

Let’s start with priorities. The first is always ourselves, and the first response must be to hold peace in our hearts, despite this and other war tragedies. We do not help the citizens of Ukraine by offering them thoughts of fear or an anguished heart. We help by holding peace in our hearts and recognizing that they are in our hearts just as we are in theirs. It’s how Life works.

Healing requires letting go of our own fears. Fear is the mind-killer. Always the enemy of peace, and therefore never our friend. Whatever answers fear seems to offer are false. Love is the answer, Here in this Life we share. It is the first truth.

There are thousands of peace organizations and groups, but they seem to have little impact on our situation. We are no more peaceful as a planet than we’ve been since World War II, with the constant beat of war drums ever since by The War Machine.

So we must rise up. Getting into the streets is not an ideal answer, but it’s required if we intend to rebalance our lives and end this scourge. Of course voting is the minimal requirement, but that is a slow remedy, fraught with bullshit.

In rising up we force the issue, reminding legislators of our power and intent, reducing to some small degree the corporate influence.

Not a pretty or hopeful picture at this point, but we see great opportunities for change as the old system continues to crumble under the weight of its own corruption.

Let us do what we can and be who we are, and dream of brighter days, where Life is held in much higher regard, and our tolerance for war is zero.

The Farmers Awaken (not in the US yet)

A few years ago the farmers of India captured the media’s attention with their blockades of major roads in and out of India’s cities. The Modi government had created and tried to enforce policies that supported the agribiz corporate agenda, and made life that much tougher for the already poor farmers.

One of the protestors, Mr. Singh, had this to say in November of 2021…“The root of the agricultural issue in India is that farmers are not getting the proper value of their crops. There are two ways to see reforms — giving away land to the corporations, the big people, the capitalists. The other is to help the farmers increase their yields.”

And after the year long protest, the government gave in, reversing the policies that initiated the protests. Make no mistake, the agricultural system in India is still a not mess of long-standing grievances and more recent issues, often around changing climate, yet it was clearly a victory for the farmers.

Just this past month, July 222, farmers in the Netherlands are making their voices heard with similar protests, blocking streets and entrances to grocery stores to make their point. In this case the Dutch government is using the need to reduce nitrogen emissions and runoff as the reason for new laws that hurt the farmers.

There is no question the agribiz model of farming sucks. It produces shitty food and the nitrogen runoff here in the US has devastated the Gulf of Mexico, creating vast ‘dead zones’ where fish cannot survive. Yet instead of sheparding the farmers of the Netherlands into organic, wholesome growing methods, they’re taking an approach that screws the farmers but leaves corporate agribiz pretty much intact. More BS.

We’re seeing uprisings in Africa as well, where Mr. Smarty Pants Bill Gates thinks bringing in big tractors and ‘the Agribiz Way’ to these farmers will make them ‘more productive’. Perhaps. It will surely make them more in debt, more exposed to nasty chemicals, and less in touch with the land they’ve worked for thousands of years.

Now we’re seeing Canadian farmers who see the writing on the wall that their government wants to impose similar harsh measures that large scale farms can comply with, but most small farmers cannot. Does it seem like there’s a pattern here? You bet.

And what is this pattern I speak of? It goes by multiple names, the two most common being The Great Reset (World Economic Forum 2020) and The New World Order (popularized in the 1990s). Now, these terms both immediately bring ‘conspiracy theories’ as the defining characteristic, yet if you’re part of whose behind corporate media would you not take this exact approach. Invalidate the idea regardless of truth – which is what corporate media has been doing for at least 40 years now.

Looking at our world, and why farmers and so many others are not putting up with the bullshit anymore, and there can only be one of two conclusions. 1) The Great Reset is clearly in evidence, and we must do whatever we can to resist. 2) These vast imbalanced are just the result of corporate greed, and we must do whatever we can to resist.

So, conspiracy theory or clear truth, our response must be the same. We must do whatever we can to resist. It’s what World 5.0 is about, and it’s just in time…

There Ain’t No Good Guys

Singer/songwriter Dave Mason sang this song written by Jim Krueger, which held the chorus…

There ain’t no good guys, there ain’t no bad guys, there’s just you and me and we just disagree.

For most of we nearly 8 billion humans, the saying seems true enough. We’re just trying to get along and get by, challenging enough in these times. On the geo-political scale however, only the first part is true. There ain’t no good guys.

In the world of corporations and their ownership, we have long-standing ruthless folks running Wall Street and our financial system. Historically Morgans and Rockefellers, more recently Waltons (Walmart), the Musks and Bezos and Gates. They do not serve us. They are lost in a world only known to the ultrarich. They spend money to buy and build crazy shit. Gates is lately on a mission to buy land and ensure the world’s agriculture never gets away from the agribiz model, in spite of its devastation.

Musk and Bezos, and their peers just want government off their back so they can continue to exploit people and planet. Like the US government has clipped their wings. Right. They ain’t good guys.

How about nation-state leaders from around the globe? Yeah, right again. With very few exceptions, mostly in South America in places like Chile, our rulers are in the throes of corporate control, which they gladly accept to grow their personal power through it ruins their citizens’ lives. They ain’t good guys either.

Our elected officials at every level, for the most part, care little about citizen rights or happiness. Their focused on corporate interests, not ours. They ignore their oaths and our priorities with reckless abandon, while performing fellatio at every turn for their illegal money grabbing. They ain’t good guys.

And with even a modicum of awareness about the state of things in these United States, we find about one-third of our populace willing to overthrow an elected president because they’re controlled by ideology and are cult followers of Donald Trump. They ain’t good guys either. Though, not as defense but as a recognition of reality in this culture, they’ve been beat down, abused and mis-educated for so long this sort of right-wing, hate spewing individuals should come as no surprise.

So what we find is ‘average’ Americans are content to be citizens and take care of their lives. It’s the sickos who seek power and position and influence over others. Which brings us to a bunch of knucklehead (to be kind) running our cities, counties, states and Federal Government. Not good.

Most troubling is how we’ve been so handily manipulated to keep allowing these demented folks to maintain power and control over us. Donald Trump is but one example.

The fix is clearly an educated electorate, who would not put up with this bullshit. Republican, Democrat or Independent, if we are ‘woke’ – to take back a term the manipulators now disparage, we won’t elect corporate owned politicians. We’ll elect folks who have our back and are interested in ‘the pursuit of Life, Liberty and Happiness instead of corporate profits.

It’s clearly this simple. Yet the forces against our education are vast and long-standing. Which means we require substantive change, even transformation, to repair this broken system. Which means we must rise up and thwart this corrupt system at every turn we can. It’s what citizens are required to do if we want to be citizens, and not slaves.

CINCINNATI – Hemp Capital

We can make Cincinnati the first ‘Hemp Hub’ in these United States.

Growing hemp, marijuana’s fiberous cousin, has been federally legalized as of 2018. The feds are still sorting out some of the details for what can be grown, processed and manufactured, there is a marvelous opportunity here.

So, it’s an excellent time to think about how our region can leverage this change in legal status to become a hub of hemp processing and manufacturing.

What’s the big deal? Hemp is a big deal. Humans and hemp have a long history, briefly interrupted in the 1930s when super elite huckster William Randolph Hearst used his yellow press and political influence to make hemp illegal. As it happens, he could make more money on his paper using wood pulp, as he owned lots of forest. Hemp, along with marijuana, was thoroughly demonized.

But back to the big deal. Hemp is an incredibly versatile plant, with each part of the plant providing useful products. Hemp is easily grown with little in the way of chemicals or fertilizer needed. It’s suited to relatively small plots of farmland, which are abundant in southern Ohio and much of Kentucky.

Hemp fiber is strong and durable, one of its earlier uses being the canvas sails that allowed for global travel hundreds of years ago. There were no long ocean-faring ships until the 16th century when Europeans discovered the Arabian secret of constructing hemp sails.

Hemp clothing alone could be transformative. The original Levi’s Jeans were made from hemp sailcloth, and today’s cottonized hemp is a versatile option for any number of cloth and fiber products.

Our Constitution was written on hemp paper. Hemp fibers can strengthen any number of other products as well, including building products. Actually, combined with other hemp materials and composites, it’s stronger and cheaper than wood or concrete for building. And shoes, yes, for generations hemp shoes were a thing, and they are starting to make a come back.

Hemp seeds can be used as food and seasoning, but are most commonly used to press the oil from them. Hemp oils can be used in cooking, on the skin, and ingested to mitigate a variety of discomforts. The seeds themselves are a bit nutty tasting, and can be used in salads or as a garnish.

Hemp roots are valuable as well, having been used as a health remedy and tea since ancient times. Powders or ground into a paste, it has diuretic properties and is a staple of natural healing methodologies.

In 1941, Henry Ford built a car out of hemp. It was not only built out of hemp plastic, but it also ran on hemp fuel. Hemp plastic was tested to be much stronger than steel. They tried denting the hemp car with a hammer, but the car didn’t even budge.

And those are just some of the basics. Hemp composites, where fibers, oils and powders are mixed to create or replace plastics are being discovered. Hemp composites to be used in 3D printing are only now beginning to be understood. Hemp was a key ingredient in Roman aqueducts, explaining while some are still standing 2,000 years later.

Of course, this notion of making Cincinnati a Hemp Hub has a ton of potential and needs far more discussion. Cincinnati’s mayor and council need to make this a priority in 2022 and beyond. The scalability, local nature and community-building aspects of hemp farming and processing are all wondrous and worth pursuing. There is no Hemp Hub or Hemp Capital yet in these United States. It seems like wonderful time for Cincinnati to lead the way.

Connect – A New Ecological Paradigm

Community Policing 101

Older folks will remember the Andy Griffith Show, where the Mayberry law enforcement team of Andy Griffith and Barney Fife maintained security through community policing. Okay it was TV, with a context of generally happy, middle class white folk living in small town America. But the idea was good.

It’s still good. And it’s an idea much needed at this time. We don’t really need to review the symptoms. Folks, especially of color, are being gunned down left and right. We need to find answers. We need systemic change.

There are elements within policing agencies and government at large that are ripe with corruption and ideology, neither of which contribute to a healthy community. The coding of empire is deepest within the law enforcement and military culture, the brainwashing most complete. And so it is here where we must focus to create peace.

Most of our police folk are good people, and most of us know a few police officers. But this element of racism and hate is killing us. We need and deserve a better way forward. It’s the only reasonable alternative. No one’s going to do it for us.

We have to see into the heart of the problem. Here’s what writer Simon Balto had to say last year: “As someone who has spent years researching a book on the CPD’s relationship to black Chicago, I can attest that the police department’s stultifying opacity on officer misconduct cases would be an almost impressive feat of obfuscation, were it not so maddening and socially harmful.

The Chicago situation is not unique. An impressive amount of obfuscation is the rule when it comes to police wrong doing. The culture of never speaking out against another cop, regardless of his/her bad behavior, is a culture of bullshit. The culture that believes their uniform and guns give them power over others and above the law is bullshit. The culture that allows black folks to be killed wantonly by police is beyond despicable. Horrible.

The FOP is a central force in maintaining these wrong-headed cop-culture dynamics. ‘Lie and Deny’, the classic response of the guilty, is their main strategy to dissipate outrage at the bad behavior of some cops. As Trevor Noah pointed out on The Daily Show, why is video evidence incontrovertible in every case unless police are involved? Then we have ‘the wrong angle’ or ‘Don’t believe your lying eyes’ or the cameras fell off or some other form of obfuscation.

More on the FOP below.

The Dallas Sniper

On July 7th, 2016, a sniper in Dallas during a peaceful Black Lives Matter protest killed five and wounded seven police officers. This sort of resistance to those sworn to ‘protect and serve’ isn’t surprising when the headlines from the two previous days were of black men murdered by police. Indeed, in 2016 there’s pretty much a murder of a black person every day.

We seem to be in this terrible nightmare where the veneer has come off, and haters –  cops and whackos alike – are just going off on black folk. The current wave seems to have started with George Zimmerman killing teen Trayvon Martin back in 2012. How many murdered black folk since? Yeah. And how many before 2012? Countless.

Within this context, is it really that surprising the a former army soldier, Micah Xavier Johnson, would elect to start shooting cops? How much violence, trauma and pain can we expect our darker skinned sisters and brothers to take? How long do we imagine it will be until the wretched legacy of subjugation and slavery is truly a thing of the past?

What is certain is that Mr. Johnson’s actions have created a new dynamic. It’s an opportunity for police officers to think again, especially if they’ve been part of the problem. It’s a new form of pushback to a great injustice. And it’s potentially empowering for an ethnic group long disrespected and abused. It’s fighting back.

Does a World5 mindset condone this response? No. No more than we condone the murder of innocent black people. Our intent is always peace and love. Will we defend ourselves if attacked? That is for each of us to choose based on our inclinations and the situation. Our revolution is peace and love.

It’s Not a Matter of Time

There’s nothing implicit in the passage of time to suggest that these conditions will improve and that the police culture will change. “The arc of history may well be bending toward justice.” – Martin Luther King, but that’s one long arc, and we don’t have that kind of time. We need radical change, and we need it now. Funny how so many areas of our lives point to the need for revolution.

For police reform, let’s get back to the FOP. We need to transform the FOP from a bad cop protecting nightmare institution into a ‘how do we rebuild our communities’ leader. Because it’s never been subjected to union-busting like every other union, we sometimes forget it is a union – a place for folk to build stronger ties to each other and their communities.

What if the FOP had as it’s focus the strengthening and rebuilding of the communities they served? How much more engagement with their citizenry would there be? How many new initiatives might be generated? How many citizens, especially poor and dispossessed, would benefit? And finally, how much safer and richer would the lives of our police be under such FOP guidance.

Transforming the FOP, from within and without, will do much to restore the relationships between police and the citizens they are sworn to protect and serve. 

The Peace Revolution

Underneath the propaganda of mainstream media there’s actually a lot going on that points to a better day ahead. There are local community peace building programs cropping up in many cities. There are ‘interventions’ taking place in cities like Ferguson, MO and Baltimore, MD. Citizen action groups, like Black Lives Matter, have created more than 1,000 protest actions since April of 2014.

Deeper still, there is an awakening in many of our hearts, leading to greater understanding and empathy for our sisters and brothers. This wellspring of love has been ignored and abused as well, but it’s finding its way into our culture, bit by bit.

Finally, let’s not forget that these killings are happening within a wider culture of violence. American Empire has 800 based around the world, sells more armaments, conducts more drone and air strikes, and starts more wars than any other country on Earth. Our media is riddled with violence, from TV shows to news ‘shows’. Is it surprising that a culture of violence engenders violence?

Standing here as we are, our best strategy for resistance is walk away – to let go. Turn off the TV and take a walk in your neighborhood, making eye contact and saying hi to neighbors. If you know of someone who’s on the edge, talk to them or get help. If you’re part of a policing agency, grow some balls and bust the deranged fuckers who are killing us needlessly. And above all, hold to Life, God, Allah, Eternal Awareness – the name’s not important – and to the understanding that we are in the throes of epochal change. And yes it is messy, and no we don’t have to be afraid. 

A Revolution of Love

After generations of abuse from the world’s controllers, the global elite are losing their grip. For those paying attention, there are a host if indicators that their iron fist of control is cracking.

New forms of banking are emerging to challenge the corruption of Wall Street. The fossil fuel industry is losing control as renewable resources come online, we the people rejecting their priority of profits over climate change and the Earth’s health. Organic food is growing by leaps and bound. We could go on and on.

But let’s focus on the new. What is replacing these obsolete systems?

New systems that reflect our human dignity and the Earth. Systems that contribute to our wholeness instead of ill health. Systems that demand equal rights, economic rights, and integrity and transparency.

These are signs of love emerging. But they’re just the tip of the iceberg.

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In sharp contrast to the devastation being visited on the Middle East by the Empire, on a more personal scale we’re seeing folks find alignment and getting along like never before. We’re seeing a greater sense of empathy, a reaching out to help and an engagement in neighborhoods and communities that is unmatched in generations.

Love is emerging.

And in this crazy election year, we’re seeing a commitment to progressive, human supporting ideas that hasn’t been seen since the New Deal in the 1930s.

Let’s be clear. Love is the deepest human emotion we are capable of. It wishes the best for everyone, without the motivation of personal benefit, like wanting to get laid. Love is the genuine expression of life once fear is removed from our lives. You see, it is Peace that engenders Love, because at are core we are Eternal Awareness – call it Life, God, Allah, The Force – the word is of little consequence. So regardless of the tumultuous nature of our lives, at our core is peace. And by touching that peace, love becomes our natural expression.

What many of us older folk struggle to learn, the younger folk have an intuitive understanding of who we are and what we are about. This is why they flock to Bernie. He’s authentic and holds integrity, rare traits in politicians.

We can thank the indomitable Bernie Sanders for lighting this fire. But it is not his flame. This is the flame of Truth emerging. This is the flame of millions taking action for a better way forward. This is the flame of recognition when we look into a stranger’s eyes and see a friend. This is the flame of revolution. And the revolution is Love.

Coming Soon

Hi, and welcome to the new World 5.0 website. If you’re new to this idea of World5, you’re in for a treat. World 5.0 cracks the code of who and where we are, and suggests ways forward that will bring you happiness. Read the book and check out the Declaration video to submerse and learn.

And Now (ahem), we have a digital home. Here you find a refreshing retreat from bullshit and ads, a place where you can contribute and express yourself quite easily through the Connect menu link above. We can now finally be heard in a supportive way.

The World 5.0 menu link breaks down the necessary priorities for us to restore our planet and create new global, local and everywhere in between cultures that affirm Life and our togetherness herein.

We intend much more with this site, primarily in creating better tools to connect with each other, but it’s clearly a beginning. The Connect button on the menu will allow you to post articles, add links and videos for starters, and see and comment on recent posts from others. Soon we’ll allow for grouping by topic and other additions to make that side of the site and functional as possible. The World 5.0 side allows you to learn about our new culture, where we appreciate that we’re all here together in Life, and we begin to understand the power of our intent. The Platform suggests transformative strategies based on Peace, Good Governance, Localism, Organic Food and Learning.

We’ll also be implementing new digital tools as quickly as we may to bring our new paradigm into being. Bernie Sanders keeps telling us of the need for a revolution. Couldn’t agree more, and World 5.0 is surely part of this revolution./p>

A Black Swan Presidential Campaign

The Black Swan theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain the disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology. The printing press is an example.

Some recent examples include:

  1. The Internet.
  2. The earthquake in Japan that created the Fukushima nuclear meltdown.
  3. The BP Gulf of Mexico disaster.
  4. 9/11.
  5. The financial collapse of 2008.

While there may have been a few insiders and visionaries who saw these events coming, they were all massive, culture-shifting events that were not predicted. And while the creation, development and encompassing nature of the Internet has taken 50 years to develop, it’s clearly a Black Swan ‘event’ that was not understood when DARPA started the project in the 1960s.

2016 Election Campaign Swans

In the 2016 presidential election campaigns, the Black Swans are flying in both political parties.

Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee, and if you believe corporate media, Hillary Clinton is similarly poised.

Donald Trump is all about Donald Trump, to a point that makes his election seem catastrophic to most of us. His Black Swan overtaking of the Republican Party has astonished the right, and proven again the fits and starts of Life.

The other Black Swan is obviously Bernie Sanders. He is the other side of the Tao to Donald Trump. Bernie is bringing forth ideas for substantive change, and engaging the younger generation like no other candidate.

And the reason for his popularity is clear. It’s his authenticity, his integrity and his genuine love and compassion. His candidacy and agenda resonate with the reality of millions of us, who do not benefit like the .01%.

The future?

We have yet to learn what will happen at the conventions. But we already know change is afoot like we haven’t faced in a generation or longer. As data-driven historian Peter Turchin said,  “In the United States, 50-year instability spikes occurred around 1870, 1920 and 1970, so another could be due around 2020,” he added. Or we could be witnessing such a Black Swan election cycle this year.

Standing here staring at presumptive Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, it’s clear there are forces at work well outside what establishment Republicans assumed and prefer. With a Trump standard bearer, Republican control of both congressional bodies is now in play.

Against this backdrop, establishment Dems [and corporate media] are doing all they can to bolster Hillary Clinton’s campaign. My impression is that they don’t know which they fear more – a Trump presidency or a victorious insurgency by Bernie Sanders. Either is inherently threatening to their power structure. Yet clearly Ms. Clinton is the more vulnerable candidate with her past policies and actions. She holds no moral ground on Mr. Trump. And she does not inspire as Trump and Sanders do.

The Democratic Establishment

What the democratic establishment ignores at its peril…According to writer Bill Boyarsky, “The Sanders team is now the Democratic Party’s activist base, and without its enthusiastic participation, Donald Trump may be elected president in November.” Here we go, folks. Game on!

The inevitable march of time will bring us the final candidates and a new president. The inevitable parroting of mainstream media will keep harping their talking points with little respect for history or truth. And the inevitable nature of change assures us that Black Swan events will continue to mark turning points in our culture.

This is What Will Happen at the Democratic Convention

Can Sanders do it? Or is Clinton truly inevitable?

Bernie Sanders has vowed to fight relentlessly for the 2016 Democratic Party’s nomination up to the convention and, despite the apparent consensus of the media’s talking heads that the campaign is a lost cause, he has held fast to his claim that there is a “narrow path to victory.” I am reminded of Galadriel’s ominous words of advice, in the Fellowship of the Ring:

The quest stands upon the edge of a knife — stray but a little, and it will fail…

It has even become something of a weekly occurrence for Hillary Clinton and her Wallstreet-backed campaign to imply, insinuate, or flat-out demand that Sanders withdraw his bid for the nomination — they are growing increasingly indignant about the fact that Sanders is trying to win. Which brings us to the heart of the issue — can Bernie Sanders–can we–win the delegates needed for the nomination?

The answer to this question is as simple as it is misleading — No. No, my friends, we cannot. And yet–! And yet, neither can Hillary Clinton — and I am going to show you what the media is willfully hiding from you. I am going to show you why, using the one thing that even the media can’t hide: Math.

Why Clinton Will Not Secure the Nomination, According to Math

According to the Green Papers, Clinton stands (today, April 28th) with 1,664 pledged delegates, while Sanders has gathered 1,371. The amount of delegates needed to secure the nomination is 2,383 and, if you’ll pardon me for my use of arithmetic, I will now demonstrate why that number is hopelessly out of reach for the Clinton campaign.†

Hillary needs 719 more delegates to reach 2,383 because:

2,383 – 1,664 = 719

Now, the pledged delegates that are available to grab in the remaining states all-together amount to 1,016 and in order to attain that blessed number, Clinton will have to win an average of 70.7% of the remaining states. This is because:

719 ÷ 1,016 = 0.707677 or approximately 71%

You might be thinking that 71% is not such an unattainable number for Hillary and her powerful Wallstreet backers — you might be thinking that but you’d be betting against longer odds than would be wise. You see, of the 1,016 delegates remaining, 475 of those delegates are to be won in California, alone — California, which has a semi-open primary. California, where Clinton is polling at a mere 49%. California, where Clinton’s support has been declining as the Sanders Campaign gains visibility and momentum. California — the ace that Sanders, as much as the media, have concealed up his sleeve.

It is no secret that Sanders, a previously invisible independent senator from the tiny state of Vermont, consistently climbs in the polls as he begins to campaign in the weeks before each state has had its primary. You don’t have to take my word for it — check the poll-histories for yourself or read this.

Because Bernie Sanders performs at his absolute best in open primaries and because he consistently rises in the polls, while Clinton consistently falls, it is extremely unlikely that Clinton will perform better than 49 points, let alone win the contest. Let’s do some more math:

Of the 475 delegates available in California on June 7th, lets say Hillary takes 49% of those (even though she will almost certainly take less). That would give her 232.75 delegates, which we’ll round up to an even 234.

475 x 0.49 = 232.75

Next, let’s add that to her current total of 1,664, bringing her up to 1,897. Now, she needs an additional 486 delegates to reach the magic number of 2,383, right? Let’s find out how many delegates Clinton would have to win in the remaining states (besides California, of course).

Of the 541 delegates left, once the 475 CA delegates have been subtracted from the 1,016 delegate total, Clinton is going to have to win almost 90% of the remaining non-California delegates! This is because, when you divide the number of delegates that Clinton needs after California by the number of delegates remaining after California, you get 0.898 or 89%, rounded down:

486 ÷ 541 = 0.898 or 89.8%

Now, how likely does that sound? It’s not likely in Oregon, a fairly progressive state that shares its general attitudes with Washington, a state that Sanders won with about 70% of the vote. It’s not likely in West Virginia, either, where Sanders is currently leading in the polls. Nor is it likely in Indiana where Sanders and Clinton are almost neck-and-neck, which votes on May 3rd. That nomination is feeling a lot further away now, isn’t it?

Okay, okay — maybe you’re thinking, “John, I think you’re being unfair, Clinton could certainly win California.” To which I would reply: I admire your optimism, my friend — and since you’re so optimistic, let’s run those numbers again — but this time, let’s assume that Clinton, for whatever reason, defies the consistent trends that have prevailed over the entire primary season. Let’s say, she jumps up 11% now, winning the California primary with 60% of the vote. So:

475 x 0.6 = 285

Now, add the 285 delegates to Clinton’s current total:

285 + 1,664 = 1,949

But:

2,383 – 1,949 = 434

So, Clinton will still need to scrape up 434 delegates somewhere other than California, some how. Which means — Hold on, first we have to figure out how much of the remaining delegates she’ll have to win:

434 ÷ 541 = .802218 or 80%

Wow! Even if Clinton actually wins California with 60% to Sanders with 40%, she will still have to secure about 80% of the remaining vote! Again, this certainly doesn’t seem likely in Oregon, West Virginia, or Indiana, which means the actual percentage would climb each time she failed to take 80% of a state! Now, are you starting to see why I am saying that Clinton will not be securing the nomination before the convention?

Part Two: Why Sanders Will Win, According to Math

If you’ve found yourself thinking, “Well, Sanders won’t secure the nomination, either!” You are almost 100% right! Well, 99.6% right, anyway. Because, if we take Sanders’ current delegate total of 1,371, subtract that from the magic 2,383, then divide that by the remaining available delegates, we get 0.996, see:

2,383 – 1,371 = 1,012

1,012 ÷ 1,016 = 0.996 or 99.6%

Therefore, Sanders would have to secure a whopping 99.6% victory in all remaining states to secure the nomination! I think this may be one of the few things that both Berners and Clintonistas could agree on: that that is impossible. But to those of you that are thinking, “John! This is terrible” or “Haha! Take that, Sanders!” I would reply: You are both wrong. Mostly. Let me explain:

First off, let’s acknowledge that the math seems to prohibit both candidates from securing the nomination before the convention — so what does this mean? This means that, since Sanders will not give up before the convention, there will almost certainly be a “contested convention.”

“Um… But John…” you may be saying, “Won’t Hillary still be miles ahead of Sanders in votes at the convention?”

To which I would reply: I’m glad you asked, my paid Hillary-supporter friend! Allow me to demonstrate how that will also not be the case, no matter what the media would have you believe. Follow me!

Since neither of them will be securing the 2,383 needed for the nomination, let’s take a look at another number that has been hiding in plain sight for far too long. I’d like you to meet the number, 4,051. That’s the number of total pledged delegates that are available from all 50 states, plus DC, US territories, and the Democrats abroad. As it should be obvious, a majority of these delegates would be 2,026 because:

4,051 ÷ 2 = 2,025.5

At the convention, this number is going to matter more than the unattainable 2,383 delegates that no one will have. That being the case, let’s take a look at what Bernie Sanders would have to do to get there. If Sanders won 60% of the remaining contests (and remember how 475 of 1,016 are in California, where Sanders will do well), then the numbers at the convention would look like this:

1,016 x .60 = 609.6

Round that to 610 and add it to Sanders current total of 1,371, then divide that by the total delegate count, 4,051:

610 + 1,371 = 1,981

1,981 ÷ 4,051 = .489 or 48.9%

So, in the scenario where Sanders takes about 60% of the remaining vote, we’re essentially looking at a 49 to 51% vote total at the convention — not so bad, eh? And that’s easily within Sanders’ reach, if we do well in California (which we almost certainly will). Let’s look at what happens if he takes 70% (just like he did last time we went to the West/Left Coast):

1,016 x .70 = 711.2, round it down to 711, then:

711 + 1,371 = 2,082

2,082 ÷ 4,051 = 0.513 or 51.3%

If Sanders took 70%, the convention would look like 51.3 to 48.7%, in favor of Sanders! But 70%, while possible, is a bit of a stretch — the new magic number, for Sanders anyway, is actually 64.4% of the remaining states, which would mean winning 655 of the 1,016 remaining delegates, pushing his total up to 2,026, the bare majority of delegates, leaving Clinton one delegate behind at 2,025.

Now, does Sanders winning 64.4% sound too far-fetched? Not particularly, especially when we consider his advantages on the Left Coast, in California’s 475 delegate semi-open primary. An uphill climb, though? Certainly. Remember, though: it is all but certain that Clinton will not secure the nomination, while Sanders supporters are going to be pouring into Philadelphia for the convention by the tens of thousands. Even if Bernie fell short by a few points, we’re still essentially looking at a tie. And that’s when all hell is going to break loose.

Things are going to become very interesting if we have a near-tie at the convention to be decided by the super-delegates.

Things are going to become very interesting when they look back at the many states that are still crying out for a re-vote, states fraught with “voting irregularities,” polling station closures, and voter roll purges — all states which Clinton won and all states which so far have not received justice.

Things are going to become very interesting when the DNC and the super-delegates realize that Sanders, unlike the Wallstreet-backed Clinton-Machine, will bring in not only millions of independent voters that were unable to vote in the primaries, but even defecting Republican votes, sealing the GOP’s utter defeat in November.

Things are going to become very interesting when, while they are thinking about all of these things, they are doing so to the earth-shaking, thunderous chants of “Sanders! Sanders!” from his tens of thousands of supporters outside, who have time-and-again proven their ability to rally by the tens of thousands — do you think that we won’t do the same at the convention?

And finally, things are going to become very, very interesting when the super-delegates and the DNC are forced to choose, publicly, whether to hand the nomination to Clinton and watch the millions of independents walk away, along with millions of former-democrat Sanders-supporters, basically handing the general election to the neo-fascists Trump or Cruz — or, to hand it to Sanders, a leader who will have the support, not only of the entire Democratic Party, but of millions of Independents, Green Party voters, and — yes, indeed — even Republicans defecting from the extremist GOP. That will be the most interesting part, I think. I’ll see you all in Philadelphia.

In Solidarity,
John Laurits

P.S. Please feel totally free to reproduce this article, re-post, re-use, re-cycle, or whatever, in whole or in part — credit would be lovely but, ultimately, I don’t really care! Do as ye will! Peace!

#SeeYouInPhilly

Originally posted on The Writing of John Laurits.

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